Thailand Property Market Outlook.

The Real Estate Information Center's figures for 2025, reported by Nation Thailand, show:

• Foreign condo transfers: 14,899 units, up 2.2% on 2024
• Value: ฿60.92bn (£1.37bn), down 10.7%
• Share of the market: foreigners took 14.7% of all condo units transferred and 25% of the value
• Average foreign purchase: about ฿4.1m (£92,000), calculated from the totals

Volumes held up while values fell, which means foreign buyers bought smaller or cheaper units on average. The national figure is dominated by Bangkok and by mainland Asian buyers at modest price points, so it says little about the Phuket villa or the west-coast apartment market our clients buy in.

Phuket is a different market from Bangkok: smaller, resort-led and driven by tourism and lifestyle demand rather than urban housing.

Q1 2026: foreign buyers registered 420 condo transfers in Phuket worth ฿2.43bn (£54.6m), according to figures reported by Thailand Construction News, citing the Bangkok Post. That is an average of about ฿5.8m (£130,000) per unit, roughly 40% above the 2025 national foreign average. Russian buyers accounted for 156 of those units and about 44% of the value.

A higher price per unit suggests buyers of larger, second-home stock rather than small investor units, although one quarter is a thin base to judge from. Our Phuket guide covers the island area by area.

Tourism is the engine of Phuket's property market. It fills rental programmes, supports nightly rates and introduces future buyers to the island.

• Thailand, 2025: 32.97m international arrivals, with long-haul arrivals at a record 10.8m (Tourism Authority of Thailand)
• UK, 2025: the one-millionth UK visitor arrived on 17 December 2025, with the full-year total projected at nearly 1.1m. The UK and the US each passed 1m for the first time.
• Direct capacity: Virgin Atlantic's non-stop service from Heathrow to Phuket, three times a week from 18 October 2026, is a seasonal winter route aimed squarely at British demand.

For a UK buyer, the UK's growing visitor numbers matter twice: they support rental demand from British guests, and they mean a resale market that includes buyers from home.

Infrastructure in Phuket has long lagged demand. Traffic between the airport, the west coast and Patong is the island's most common complaint. Four projects matter, at very different stages.

Phuket airport, phase 2. Airports of Thailand plans a second phase costing about ฿10bn (£225m). It would add 5.5m passengers of capacity and lift the airport to at least 18m passengers a year. Design is due to finish in 2026, with approval sought in 2027. AOT has said the international terminal expansion is being fast-tracked for completion by 2031. This is the project with the most direct effect on the north and west coasts, from Mai Khao to Bang Tao.

The Kathu–Patong tunnel. An expressway and tunnel costing ฿16.76bn (£377m), intended to cut the journey over the hill into Patong to minutes. It is due to go to Cabinet in December 2026, with construction from October 2027 and opening targeted for October 2031.

The Phuket tram. A light-rail line along the island's spine, with phase 1 not expected until after 2030. We treat it as a long-dated option, not a reason to buy now.

The Andaman airport. A new airport to serve the Andaman region is at feasibility-study stage. It would take pressure off Phuket airport in the long term, but it is years from a decision.

The Southern Land Bridge, the planned road and rail link between the Gulf and the Andaman coast, is effectively on hold. A government panel found it not economically feasible in July 2026. The prime minister has said it is not scrapped, but there is no construction timetable. We give it no weight in Phuket valuations.

Three reforms are under discussion. None is law, and we price none of them into our advice.

• A 75% foreign condo quota. The current limit is 49% of a building's floor area. A proposal to raise it to 75% has been "approved for study" only. If enacted, it would widen foreign supply in popular buildings. That is good for buyers' choice, and neutral to negative for scarcity value in existing foreign-quota units.
• 99-year leases. The maximum lease today is 30 years under the Civil and Commercial Code. An amendment to the Leasehold Asset Act allowing 99-year terms went to public consultation in July 2025 and has not been enacted. Our foreign ownership guide explains why renewal promises in a 30-year lease are weaker than they look.
• Short-term letting. Lets of under 30 days need a Hotel Act licence. Reform bills were in committee in July 2026, and a draft Accommodation Establishment Act was published on 29 September 2026. Neither is enacted. See our rental yields guide.

One measure that has passed doesn't help foreign buyers: the cut in transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% (1 July 2026 to 30 June 2027) applies only to Thai individuals buying homes of up to ฿7m.

The pound bought about ฿44.5 on 19 October 2026, and ECB reference rates put sterling about 1.5% to 2% stronger than a year earlier. For a UK buyer, the exchange rate works in three ways:

• On the purchase: a stronger pound buys more property. A ฿10m condo costs about £224,700 at today's rate.
• On income: rent is earned in baht and spent in sterling, so the return in pounds moves with the rate.
• On exit: a sale is priced in baht. A weaker baht at the point of sale can erase a gain made in local terms, and a stronger one can add to it.

Off-plan buyers pay in stages, so each payment is exposed to the rate on the day it is sent. Forward contracts let you fix the rate for future stage payments. Funds for a condo must arrive from abroad in foreign currency, and the receiving bank issues a Foreign Exchange Transaction form for transfers above USD 50,000. Keep it: it supports repatriation of the sale proceeds later.

On REIC's 2025 national figures for foreign condo transfers by units:

1. China: 4,940
2. Myanmar: 1,968
3. Russia: 1,172
4. Taiwan: 1,036
5. France: 657
6. United States: 537
7. United Kingdom: 476
8. Germany: 459

India bought fewer units but paid the highest average price, about ฿6.9m (£155,000) per unit.

In Phuket, the mix is weighted towards Russian buyers, who took about 44% of foreign condo value in Q1 2026. Reliable island-level figures by nationality are not published regularly, and we don't quote unofficial rankings.

Oversupply in parts of the market. Cushman & Wakefield estimates that Bangkok has more than 65,300 unsold condo units worth about ฿370bn (£8.3bn), of which about 25,700 are already completed, and that it will take two to three years to clear them at the current pace. Generic city-centre condos face price pressure as a result. In Phuket, the risk sits in undifferentiated off-plan stock away from the beaches and in projects relying on a single buyer nationality.

Political change. Thailand held a general election on 8 February 2026. Parliament re-elected Anutin Charnvirakul as prime minister on 19 March 2026, at the head of a coalition of Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai and 14 smaller parties. Coalitions of that breadth can shift priorities, and foreign-ownership and tax reforms have stalled across several governments. The core legal framework, including the 49% condo quota and freehold title for foreigners, has been in place for many years.

Currency. As above. The baht's movement against sterling can matter more to a UK investor's return than local price growth.

Tourism concentration. Phuket's demand depends on international travel. Shocks to air travel, or to a major source market, hit rental income first and values later.

Developer risk. Off-plan purchases depend on the developer completing. It is the risk to check hardest. Our buying guide sets out the due diligence.

The data points to a selective market, not a closed or a booming one. In practice that means:

• Be specific about the location. National statistics hide large differences between Bangkok's suburbs, Pattaya and Phuket's west coast. Look at the transfer data, tourism trends and infrastructure for the area you are buying in.
• Check the developer before the price. In a market with unsold stock, a developer under pressure may cut prices on completed units, or struggle to finish an off-plan project. Completion record, finances and land title come first.
• Plan the currency. Decide in advance how you will fund stage payments and whether to fix the rate.
• Be clear about your exit. Ask who will buy the property from you in ten years. A unit in the foreign quota of a well-run building near the beach has a deep resale market. A generic unit in an oversupplied block does not.
• Model the return in sterling, after tax. Rental income, Thai tax, UK tax and the exchange rate all affect what reaches your UK account.

This section is our opinion, not a forecast.

• Phuket over the national market. The national transfer data shows a market growing in volume but not in value. Phuket's higher average price, its tourism base and its planned airport expansion make it the stronger case for a UK buyer.
• Location within Phuket matters more than ever. The airport phase 2 and the Kathu–Patong tunnel favour the north-west coast and Patong's access respectively. We focus on Bang Tao, Layan and Kamala, within reach of the airport and the beaches.
• Buy on today's rules. A 75% quota, 99-year leases or relaxed short-let rules would all change the market. We would not pay a premium today for any of them.
• Developer quality is the main risk control. In a market with pockets of oversupply, the completion record and finances of the developer matter more than the brochure.
• Expect returns in two parts. Rental income makes a modest net contribution after tax. Most of the case rests on use of the property and long-term capital value, measured in sterling.

The developments we sell, such as Sole Mio Residences in Bang Tao and The Element by Anocha in Kamala, were chosen on those criteria. The Thailand desk can send current price lists on WhatsApp or take you through the market on a 30-minute call.