The United Kingdom guide08 of 08
UK property market outlook: prices, rents and supply.
What Savills and JLL forecast for prices and rents to 2030, why rental supply is tightening in Manchester and the Big Six cities, and what could change the picture.
The UK market is in a soft patch and the forecasters expect it to turn. Savills sees UK mainstream prices dipping in 2026 before five years of growth that favours the North West. JLL expects rents to rise slightly faster than prices to 2030. Underneath both forecasts sits the same driver for investors: supply. In Manchester, fewer homes are under construction than at any time since 2016, and across the largest regional cities the number of homes available to let has nearly halved. This guide sets out the forecasts, the evidence behind them and the risks that could change the picture.
What are the forecasts for UK house prices?
Savills' mainstream forecast, published on 1 June 2026:
Year | UK | North West |
|---|---|---|
2026 | −2.0% | 0.0% |
2027 | +2.5% | +3.5% |
2028 | +5.0% | +6.5% |
2029 | +6.0% | +6.5% |
2030 | +6.0% | +6.5% |
Five years | +18.5% | +25.0% |
Two features matter. The North West avoids the 2026 fall that Savills forecasts for the UK as a whole, and it outgrows the national average in every year. And most of the growth arrives in the second half of the period. An investor buying off-plan today with completion in 2027 or 2028 would, on this forecast, complete into a rising market.
JLL's forecast, published in August 2026, is broadly in line: UK prices up 15.3% from 2026 to 2030.
What is happening to prices in Manchester now?
The latest official figures show a market that is steady rather than rising. ONS puts the average Manchester price at £252,000 in July 2026 (provisional), up 1.2% on a year earlier, with flats and maisonettes at £195,000 and roughly flat. Rents tell a stronger story: £1,373 pcm in August 2026, up 4.2% (ONS). When rents rise faster than prices, yields on new purchases improve, which is the position in Manchester now.
Will rents keep rising?
JLL forecasts UK rents up 16.5% from 2026 to 2030, slightly ahead of prices. Across the Big Six regional cities it tracks, homes available to let were down 49% year on year in July 2026, and new-build apartment prices rose 2.2% in the first half of 2026 (JLL). In the North West, ONS shows rents up 5.8% over the year to August 2026, against a UK average rent of £1,400 pcm.
Rent growth at that pace cannot continue indefinitely, because tenants' incomes set a ceiling. But with supply this tight, the pressure is upward.
Questions on this guide? Ask our United Kingdom team.
Ownership, costs and what is for sale, on WhatsApp or by phone.
Is new supply keeping up?
Not in the big regional cities, where the rental shortfall JLL describes starts with construction. In Manchester, homes under construction in the city centre fell below 10,000 in 2026 for the first time since 2016 (Deloitte Crane Survey). Many consented schemes are waiting on funding.
A thin pipeline supports rents and resale values in the years new apartments complete. Our Manchester property price forecast sets out the city's pipeline in full.
How will interest rates and tax affect the market?
Rates. Mortgage costs are the main variable for buyers. Lower rates would bring buyers back faster; rates that stay higher for longer would delay the recovery. If you borrow, model your returns at a rate above today's, not below.
Tax. The Autumn Budget 2025 raised property income tax to 22%, 42% and 47% from April 2027, with the finance-cost credit at 22%. That bears most heavily on leveraged, higher-rate landlords holding in their own names. Stamp duty already carries a 5% surcharge on additional homes and 2% for non-residents (GOV.UK). See the costs and taxes guide.
Keep this guide: get it as a PDF.
What does the Renters' Rights Act mean for the market?
The Act received Royal Assent on 27 October 2025 and its core provisions took effect on 1 May 2026: section 21 is abolished and tenancies are periodic. A private rented sector database is due in late 2026, and a landlord ombudsman is expected around 2028. If some smaller landlords respond to the new rules by selling, rental supply tightens further, which supports rents for those who stay. Professionally managed new-build apartments are well placed to meet the new standards.
What does this mean for overseas investors?
- Buy where supply is constrained, close to employment and transport, not where several large blocks are completing at once.
- Use the dip. A flat or falling year is when launch pricing and negotiation are most favourable.
- Time completion into the forecast recovery, with finance arranged close to completion.
- Underwrite on net yield, not on growth. See the rental yields guide.
- Look at the long-term projects with realism. Northern Powerhouse Rail was confirmed on 14 January 2026 with a £45bn cap and construction in the 2030s; it supports Manchester's long-term case but should not be priced into a purchase today.
What could go wrong?
- The forecasts. Savills and JLL revise their numbers regularly; the recovery could be later or smaller.
- Interest rates. Higher-for-longer rates would hold back prices and raise refinancing costs.
- Local oversupply. If consented schemes restart together, specific districts could see a wave of competing completions.
- Policy. Further tax or regulatory changes for landlords are possible.
- Currency. Returns in your home currency move with sterling.
Manchester investment guide · Rental yields · The buying process
Frequently asked questions
Will UK house prices fall?
Savills forecasts UK mainstream prices to fall 2.0% in 2026, then rise in each of the following four years, for a cumulative 18.5% over five years (June 2026). In the North West it forecasts no change in 2026 and growth after that. A forecast fall is modest and short, but prices can move further than forecast in either direction, so buy for income first.
Is now a good time to buy UK property?
Timing the market precisely is rarely possible. The case for buying in a flat year is that you negotiate in a quieter market and own before the forecast recovery. The case for caution is that forecasts can be wrong and rates can stay higher for longer. Buy an apartment whose net rent works today, and treat any growth as upside.
Will rents keep rising in the UK?
JLL forecasts UK rents up 16.5% between 2026 and 2030, slightly ahead of its 15.3% forecast for prices (August 2026). The most recent ONS data shows Manchester rents up 4.2% and North West rents up 5.8% in the year to August 2026. Rental growth depends on supply staying short, which current build numbers suggest it will.
Which UK region has the strongest growth forecast?
In Savills' June 2026 forecast, the North West outperforms the UK average, with 25.0% cumulative growth over five years against 18.5% for the UK as a whole. The forecast reflects relative affordability and rental demand in the region's cities. Manchester and Liverpool are the region's main city markets for overseas investors.
How reliable are house price forecasts?
Treat them as a central case, not a promise. Forecasters revise their numbers several times a year as interest rates, tax policy and the economy change. Their value is in the direction and the relative ranking of regions, which tends to be more stable than the headline figure. Never base a purchase on a forecast alone.
What is Northern Powerhouse Rail and when will it affect Manchester?
Northern Powerhouse Rail is a planned upgrade of rail links between the northern cities. The government confirmed it on 14 January 2026 with a £45bn cap and construction in the 2030s; the Liverpool to Manchester line via the airport is a later phase. It is a long-term factor for the city, not one that should drive a purchase made today.
Part of our guide to investing in United Kingdom.
